{"id":922,"date":"2026-08-28T16:10:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T16:10:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/?p=922"},"modified":"2026-08-28T16:10:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T16:10:04","slug":"didnt-see-that-one-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/blog\/2026\/08\/28\/didnt-see-that-one-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Didn&#8217;t See That One Coming&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As you know, I&#8217;m in love with this Strong\/Weak\/Miss dice pattern in rpgs.\u00a0 I first came across it in Ironsworn\/Starforged, where it is cited as an implementation of a pattern that originated in one of the 1st-gen rpgs to break the D&amp;D char model with any success, Apocalypse World.\u00a0 The system is now know as Powered by the Apocalypse, or pbta.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m sure I&#8217;ve gone over this before, but to refresh &#8211; in IS\/SF, the actual mechanic is:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Roll 1d6 (Risk) and 2d10 (Challenge)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Apply any mods to Risk, usually 1 to 4<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If Risk &gt; BOTH Challenge = Strong Hit<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If Risk &gt; Challenge A &amp;&amp; Risk &lt;= Challenge B = Weak Hit<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If Risk &lt;= BOTH Challenge = Miss<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It&#8217;s a little complex, but much faster than D&amp;D and all the side-charts and whatnot.<\/p>\n<p>When I finally got around to looking into pbta, I was surprised to find that in it&#8217;s original &#8211; and still current &#8211; version, it goes like this.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Roll 2d6 and sum<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Apply mods<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">1-6 = Miss<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">7-9 = Weak Hit<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">10+ = Strong Hit<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I initially looked at that and thought, well, of course they &#8220;upgraded&#8221; the system for IS\/SF, bc the original is just too simple and can&#8217;t possible yield playable spreads&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>But the maths don&#8217;t lie!\u00a0 Bear in mind that in IS\/SF, there is really no +0 &#8211; you are always rolling against a stat, so the progression really starts at +1.<\/p>\n<p>When I line up IS\/SF +1 with pbta +0, as you can see, the differences in the distributions are negligible in the context of play, particularly solo play, at least imo.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/is-vs-pbta.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-925\" src=\"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/is-vs-pbta.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"615\" height=\"315\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If you look just at the number of Misses, i.e. fails, they&#8217;re pretty consistent.<\/p>\n<p>I think I was seduced by &#8220;complex = superior&#8221;, especially coming from such a polyhedral background.\u00a0 TBH, I&#8217;m not sure I&#8217;m comfortable with rolling just 2d6.\u00a0 WTF do I do with all my other dice???<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As you know, I&#8217;m in love with this Strong\/Weak\/Miss dice pattern in rpgs.\u00a0 I first came across it in Ironsworn\/Starforged, where it is cited as an implementation of a pattern that originated in one of the 1st-gen rpgs to break the D&amp;D char model with any success, Apocalypse World.\u00a0 The system is now know as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rambleon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=922"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":926,"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922\/revisions\/926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csnorris.com\/magus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}